Heavy passes, Part II -- or, Vulnerability is King of Matchpoints
As luck would have it, the very next board after the one in the previous article also had a balanced 12 high card points. You are the dealer now, and we are not vul versus vul, with these cards:
♠️ J6 / ♥️ Q54 / ♦️ Q876 / ♣️ AQJ4
This one is closer to an opening bid in my appraisal. The loose Queens and Jacks would improve with a few spot cards on their side, but that deficiency is in-built in the point count. In other words, Qxx is worth “2 high card points” (in this rather unreliable way we have to assess a hand’s playing strength), and Q10x is worth some undefined quantity greater than “2 high card points”. The short Jack in spades is worth less than “1 high card point” but not a lot less.
Yet, I passed this hand too. My reasons?
We have the minors, which is bad news for our chances of declaring. If we do not declare the hand, the less we talk, the better are our chances in defense.
Most importantly, we are not vulnerable and they are vulnerable. This means that if no one has a great fit, the hand will be played in notrump, and it is better for us to defend against a notrump contract than to declare it. If we make 7 tricks, that means +100 on defense, +90 on offense. If we make 8 tricks, that means +200 vs +120. The bad case for us is when we have 6 tricks — then we get -50 if we declare, and -90 if we defend. (Note that this last possibility means that if we were both vul there would be even more reason for us to prefer defending).
If the opponents confidently find a spade fit and stop at the 2-level, we can always consider reopening the auction. This will be easier in some scenarios than others, but the point is that by passing now we are not committed to stay out of the auction forever.
Anyway, after I passed, next hand opened with a “might be two” 1♣️. Partner overcalled 1♠️, which was doubled, and it’s our turn.
Now, one thing is to lean on the conservative side of a borderline decision, another is to not take advantage of a good way to involve partner in the bidding, also known as “offering a good description”. Passing again would be too wimpy. I bid 1NT — which could be the best contract if we have six tricks, as I mentioned before.
However, opener bids 2♥️, and this is passed back to us.
Partner would probably have rebid spades with any six reasonable spades - our 1NT bid was in part intended to make that choice safer for him. This means that he probably has only five spades. Should we be thinking of 2♠️ with only seven combined trumps?
Once again vulnerability becomes our main concern. If the opponents can make 8 tricks in hearts, 2♠️ becomes a very attractive contract, paying a mere 50 per undertrick. If we get doubled, the math changes, but doubles at such a low level are not very common. The only losing case for 2♠️ becomes when neither contract is makeable. That looks like an excellent bet, so 2♠️ it is, ending the auction:
After the lead of the ♥️A, you go over to partner’s seat to watch him play:
Partner has the flimsiest of overcalls, but that’s not a problem — it means that the opponents almost surely would make 2♥️.
The defense slips by starting with three rounds of hearts, East having started with ♥️AKxx. We get rid of a diamond, and try to place the major unseen honors. They are the ♠️A, the ♦️AK, and the ♣️K, and they should be bunched in West; with any other honor as well as his ♥️AKxx, West would be sorely tempted to compete to 3♥️. This means that the club finesse is off. But our best shot now is the ♠️J. West wins with the ♠️A, cashes the ♦️K, and interprets correctly his partner’s diamond card. By the way, you all should discuss this defensive situation with your partners. When East cashes the diamond King behind dummy’s Queen, that is looking for a count card. He knows we are out of diamonds, so he plays a fourth heart rather than a minor suit, which would help us more.
We ruff the 4th heart in dummy, and lead the club Queen from dummy. East wins and plays another club, allowing us to win in hand and finish drawing trumps. They were 4-2, so we are down one. The full hand: